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Prediction for CME (2023-01-11T09:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-01-11T09:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23254/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. It overlaps the 2023-01-11T08:48Z CME. The source of this CME appears to be the M3.1 flare from AR13186. There is a simultaneous filament eruption seen beyond the NE limb that appears to be associated with the 2023-01-11T08:48Z CME. This CME was a candidate for the interplanetary shock observed at L1 on 2023-01-14T21:50Z, but per advice from the LASSOS team, it appeared the CME measured too fast to be responsible for the arrival signature (which did not have a dramatic increase in solar wind speeds).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-14T13:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs
SWPC event #:  A8992
Type of L1 arrival: glancing blow

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-01-11 11:47:00Z 
Radial velocity (km/s): 1166 km/s
Longitude (deg): -33
Latitude (deg): 38
Half-angular width (deg): 27

Notes:
Product: NOAA Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Jan 12 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
RGN 3186 (Dai/beta-delta) was the source of an M3.1/Sf at 11/0833 UTC... There is some indication of a possible flanking
influence from a CME associated with the M3.1 flare from RGN 3186. The
initial model run suggests passage mainly behind and north of Earth's
orbit. However, this CME appears to have a broad sweep and the
possibility of a flanking influence on 14 Jan is not out of the
question.

Lead Time: 53.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-01-12T08:00Z

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